Chapter 1: Introduction |
1.1 | Mathematical Statistics with Mathematica | 1 |
| A | A New Approach | 1 |
| B | Design Philosophy | 1 |
| C | If You Are New to Mathematica | 2 |
1.2 | Installation, Registration and Password | 3 |
| A | Installation, Registration and Password | 3 |
| B | Loading mathStatica | 5 |
| C | Help | 5 |
1.3 | Core Functions | 6 |
| A | Getting Started | 6 |
| B | Working with Parameters | 8 |
| C | Discrete Random Variables | 9 |
| D | Multivariate Random Variables | 11 |
| E | Piecewise Distributions | 13 |
1.4 | Some Specialised Functions | 15 |
1.5 | Notation and Conventions | 24 |
| A | Introduction | 24 |
| B | Statistics Notation | 25 |
| C | Mathematica Notation | 27 |
Chapter 2: Continuous Random Variables |
2.1 | Introduction | 31 |
2.2 | Measures of Location | 35 |
| A | Mean | 35 |
| B | Mode | 36 |
| C | Median and Quantiles | 37 |
2.3 | Measures of Dispersion | 40 |
2.4 | Moments and Generating Functions | 45 |
| A | Moments | 45 |
| B | The Moment Generating Function | 46 |
| C | The Characteristic Function | 50 |
| D | Properties of Characteristic Functions (and mgf's) | 52 |
| E | Stable Distributions | 56 |
| F | Cumulants and Probability Generating Functions | 60 |
| G | Moment Conversion Formulae | 62 |
2.5 | Conditioning, Truncation and Censoring | 65 |
| A | Conditional / Truncated Distributions | 65 |
| B | Conditional Expectations | 66 |
| C | Censored Distributions | 68 |
| D | Option Pricing | 70 |
2.6 | Pseudo-Random Number Generation | 72 |
| A | Mathematica's Statistics Package | 72 |
| B | Inverse Method (Symbolic) | 74 |
| C | Inverse Method (Numerical) | 75 |
| D | Rejection Method | 77 |
2.7 | Exercises | 80 |
Chapter 3: Discrete Random Variables |
3.1 | Introduction | 81 |
3.2 | Probability: 'Throwing' a Die | 84 |
3.3 | Common Discrete Distributions | 89 |
| A | The Bernoulli Distribution | 89 |
| B | The Binomial Distribution | 91 |
| C | The Poisson Distribution | 95 |
| D | The Geometric and Negative Binomial Distributions | 98 |
| E | The Hypergeometric Distribution | 100 |
3.4 | Mixing Distributions | 102 |
| A | Component-Mix Distributions | 102 |
| B | Parameter-Mix Distributions | 105 |
3.5 | Pseudo-Random Number Generation | 109 |
| A | Introducing DiscreteRNG | 109 |
| B | Implementation Notes | 113 |
3.6 | Exercises | 115 |
Chapter 4: Distributions of Functions of Random Variables
4.1 | Introduction | 117 |
4.2 | The Transformation Method | 118 |
| A | Univariate Cases | 118 |
| B | Multivariate Cases | 123 |
| C | Transformations That Are Not One-to-One; Manual Methods | 127 |
4.3 | The MGF Method | 130 |
4.4 | Products and Ratios of Random Variables | 133 |
4.5 | Sums and Differences of Random Variables | 136 |
| A | Applying the Transformation Method | 136 |
| B | Applying the MGF Method | 141 |
4.6 | Exercises | 147 |
Chapter 5: Systems of Distributions |
5.1 | Introduction | 149 |
5.2 | The Pearson Family | 149 |
| A | Introduction | 149 |
| B | Fitting Pearson Densities | 151 |
| C | Pearson Types | 157 |
| D | Pearson Coefficients in Terms of Moments | 159 |
| E | Higher Order Pearson-Style Families | 161 |
5.3 | Johnson Transformations | 164 |
| A | Introduction | 164 |
| B | SL System (Lognormal) | 165 |
| C | SU System (Unbounded) | 168 |
| D | SB System (Bounded) | 173 |
5.4 | Gram-Charlier Expansions | 175 |
| A | Definitions and Fitting | 175 |
| B | Hermite Polynomials; Gram-Charlier Coefficients | 179 |
5.5 | Non-Parametric Kernel Density Estimation | 181 |
5.6 | The Method of Moments | 183 |
5.7 | Exercises | 185 |
Chapter 6: Multivariate Distributions |
6.1 | Introduction | 187 |
| A | Joint Density Functions | 187 |
| B | Non-Rectangular Domains | 190 |
| C | Probability and Prob | 191 |
| D | Marginal Distributions | 195 |
| E | Conditional Distributions | 197 |
6.2 | Expectations, Moments, Generating Functions | 200 |
| A | Expectations | 200 |
| B | Product Moments, Covariance and Correlation | 200 |
| C | Generating Functions | 203 |
| D | Moment Conversion Formulae | 206 |
6.3 | Independence and Dependence | 210 |
| A | Stochastic Independence | 210 |
| B | Copulae | 211 |
6.4 | The Multivariate Normal Distribution | 216 |
| A | The Bivariate Normal | 216 |
| B | The Trivariate Normal | 226 |
| C | CDF, Probability Calculations and Numerics | 229 |
| D | Random Number Generation for the Multivariate Normal | 232 |
6.5 | The Multivariate t and Multivariate Cauchy | 236 |
6.6 | Multinomial and Bivariate Poisson | 238 |
| A | The Multinomial Distribution | 238 |
| B | The Bivariate Poisson | 243 |
6.7 | Exercises | 248 |
Chapter 7: Moments of Sampling Distributions |
7.1 | Introduction | 251 |
| A | Overview | 251 |
| B | Power Sums and Symmetric Functions | 252 |
7.2 | Unbiased Estimators of Population Moments | 253 |
| A | Unbiased Estimators of Raw Moments of the Population | 253 |
| B | h-statistics: Unbiased Estimators of Central Moments | 253 |
| C | k-statistics: Unbiased Estimators of Cumulants | 256 |
| D | Multivariate h- and k-statistics | 259 |
7.3 | Moments of Moments | 261 |
| A | Getting Started | 261 |
| B | Product Moments | 266 |
| C | Cumulants of k-statistics | 267 |
7.4 | Augmented Symmetrics and Power Sums | 272 |
| A | Definitions and a Fundamental Expectation Result | 272 |
| B | Application 1: Understanding Unbiased Estimation | 275 |
| C | Application 2: Understanding Moments of Moments | 275 |
7.5 | Exercises | 276 |
Chapter 8: Asymptotic Theory |
8.1 | Introduction | 277 |
8.2 | Convergence in Distribution | 278 |
8.3 | Asymptotic Distribution | 282 |
8.4 | Central Limit Theorem | 286 |
8.5 | Convergence in Probability | 292 |
| A | Introduction | 292 |
| B | Markov and Chebyshev Inequalities | 295 |
| C | Weak Law of Large Numbers | 296 |
8.6 | Exercises | 298 |
Chapter 9: Statistical Decision Theory |
9.1 | Introduction | 301 |
9.2 | Loss and Risk | 301 |
9.3 | Mean Square Error as Risk | 306 |
9.4 | Order Statistics | 311 |
| A | Definition and OrderStat | 311 |
| B | Applications | 318 |
9.5 | Exercises | 322 |
Chapter 10: Unbiased Parameter Estimation |
10.1 | Introduction | 325 |
| A | Overview | 325 |
| B | SuperD | 326 |
10.2 | Fisher Information | 326 |
| A | Fisher Information | 326 |
| B | Alternate Form | 329 |
| C | Automating Computation: FisherInformation | 330 |
| D | Multiple Parameters | 331 |
| E | Sample Information | 332 |
10.3 | Best Unbiased Estimators | 333 |
| A | The Cramér-Rao Lower Bound | 333 |
| B | Best Unbiased Estimators | 335 |
10.4 | Sufficient Statistics | 337 |
| A | Introduction | 337 |
| B | The Factorisation Criterion | 339 |
10.5 | Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimation | 341 |
| A | Introduction | 341 |
| B | The Rao-Blackwell Theorem | 342 |
| C | Completeness and MVUE | 343 |
| D | Conclusion | 346 |
10.6 | Exercises | 347 |
Chapter 11: Principles of Maximum Likelihood Estimation
11.1 | Introduction | 349 |
| A | Review | 349 |
| B | SuperLog | 330 |
11.2 | The Likelihood Function | 330 |
11.3 | Maximum Likelihood Estimation | 357 |
11.4 | Properties of the ML Estimator | 362 |
| A | Introduction | 362 |
| B | Small Sample Properties | 363 |
| C | Asymptotic Properties | 365 |
| D | Regularity Conditions | 367 |
| E | Invariance Property | 369 |
11.5 | Asymptotic Properties: Extensions | 371 |
| A | More Than One Parameter | 371 |
| B | Non-identically Distributed Samples | 374 |
11.6 | Exercises | 377 |
Chapter 12: Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Practice
12.1 | Introduction | 379 |
12.2 | FindMaximum | 380 |
12.3 | A Journey with FindMaximum | 384 |
12.4 | Asymptotic Inference | 392 |
| A | Hypothesis Testing | 392 |
| B | Standard Errors and t-statistics | 395 |
12.5 | Optimisation Algorithms | 399 |
| A | Preliminaries | 399 |
| B | Gradient Method Algorithms | 401 |
12.6 | The BFGS Algorithm | 405 |
12.7 | The Newton-Raphson Algorithm | 412 |
12.8 | Exercises | 418 |
Appendix |
A.1 | Is That the Right Answer, Dr Faustus? | 421 |
A.2 | Working with Packages | 425 |
A.3 | Working with = , ->, == and := | 426 |
A.4 | Working with Lists | 428 |
A.5 | Working with Subscripts | 429 |
A.6 | Working with Matrices | 433 |
A.7 | Working with Vectors | 438 |
A.8 | Changes to Default Behaviour | 443 |
A.9 | Building Your Own mathStatica Function | 446 |
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